Mobility Services Enhanced by Automated Driving Could Result in Dramatically Fewer Vehicles on Roads by 2035
May 23, 2017 | Navigant ResearchEstimated reading time: 1 minute
A new report from Navigant Research analyzes competing powertrain options for light duty vehicles (LDVs), providing global forecasts for annual sales and vehicle populations, driven by scenario forecasts on battery prices, oil prices, and autonomous mobility system penetrations.
The potential of automated driving technologies promises to disrupt the global transportation system through improved efficiency in cost, time, and space. This is likely to encourage greater adoption of LDV travel via highly utilized vehicles, which are expected to become smaller and increasingly energy efficient. Click to tweet: According to a new report from @NavigantRSRCH, mobility services enhanced by automated driving could result in dramatically fewer vehicles on roads by 2035.
“By decreasing the costs and hassle of LDV travel through automation, transportation is apt to become more dependent on it, but if vehicle automation is not accompanied by electrification or alternative fuels, its net impact will be to increase fossil fuel consumption,” says Scott Shepard, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “In this respect, city governments will wield significant power in determining what technologies are adopted in automated mobility services, and those determinations are likely to be to the advantage of vehicles with zero-emissions capabilities.”
Alternative fuels do have the potential to serve as reliable replacements to gasoline and diesel, according to the report. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to account for 8 percent of the global LDV population by 2035 but could reach as high as 17 percent with high oil prices and aggressive declines in battery prices.
The report, Transportation Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles, evaluates the economics and capabilities of competing powertrain options that will feed the future transportation system. The study provides market sizing for the overall LDV market and light duty internal combustion engine, stop-start, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, fuel cell, natural gas, and propane autogas vehicles (ICEVs, SSVs, HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs, FCVs, NGVs, and PAGVs). Global forecasts for annual sales and vehicle populations are driven by scenario forecasts on battery prices, oil prices, and autonomous mobility system penetrations within the LDV fleet. Forecasts are provided by segment under conservative, base, and aggressive scenarios. Core model scenario forecasts are also provided alongside powertrain sensitivities to each scenario parameter.
Suggested Items
Vicor Power Orders Hentec Industries/RPS Automation Pulsar Solderability Testing System
04/24/2024 | Hentec Industries/RPS AutomationHentec Industries/RPS Automation, a leading manufacturer of selective soldering, lead tinning and solderability test equipment, is pleased to announce that Vicor Power has finalized the purchase of a Pulsar solderability testing system.
Lockheed Martin Successfully Transitions Long Range Discrimination Radar To The Missile Defense Agency
04/23/2024 | Lockheed MartinThe Long Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR) at Clear Space Force Station in Clear, Alaska, completed DD250 final acceptance and was officially handed over to the Missile Defense Agency in preparation for an Operational Capability Baseline (OCB) decision and final transition to the Warfighter. In addition, prior to this transition, the system has started Space Domain Awareness data collects for the United States Space Force.
US Department of Defense Selects Intel Foundry for Phase Three of RAMP-C
04/23/2024 | IntelThe U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has awarded Intel Foundry Phase Three of its Rapid Assured Microelectronics Prototypes - Commercial (RAMP-C) program.
Real Time with... IPC APEX EXPO 2024: AI Implementation at Omron
04/18/2024 | Real Time with...IPC APEX EXPOEditor Nolan Johnson and Omron Product Manager Nick Fieldhouse discuss the company's focus on AI implementation to enhance customer experience and results. They address programming challenges and how AI can help customers achieve better outcomes with less experience. Omron's AI is compatible with existing systems, facilitating easy upgrades.
Cadence Unveils Palladium Z3 and Protium X3 Systems
04/18/2024 | Cadence Design SystemsThe Palladium Z3 and Protium X3 systems offer increased capacity, and scale from job sizes of 16 million gates up to 48 billion gates, so the largest SoCs can be tested as a whole rather than just partial models, ensuring proper functionality and performance.